Zhang Juzheng and Shen Shixing personally led the way, and it took a full ten days to inspect the textile and salt industries and the tea business. Zhu Mo also visited Chun'an and found everything to be very smooth. Although there were not many workshops yet, the momentum was strong.
Looking at the whole picture, it was about seventy to eighty percent of what was expected. After all, there had been many disruptions during this period, especially the recent one that almost caused a run, leading to the potential for all efforts to be in vain.
With such achievements, hidden dangers also gradually emerged. For instance, after the first batch of acquisitions, workshop owners' incomes became considerable. Those who were still diligently farming became anxious and fearful. The rumors from that day were indeed true; some workshop owners were indeed from a rogue background.
Another problem was that more and more people wanted to start workshops, so many that the official estates dared not release more funds. Moreover, if this trend continued, they would soon approach their production capacity limits. Associated problems then arose: the number of people engaged in farming had indeed decreased, significantly. This would cause a grain problem, something Zhu Mo had considered but not expected to happen so quickly.
However, what concerned him most was not these issues, but the hearts of the people! The sentiments of the populace had indeed undergone significant changes. On one hand, the common people were full of vigor; on the other hand, the gentry were terrified and bewildered. It was precisely for this reason that the slave revolts and the official school case caused such a stir.
Upon checking, the "dog system" also provided an assessment, and the situation was similar—
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[Progress Warning: Imbalance in Industrial Proportions;]
[Population Ratio: Agricultural population in the four Jiangnan provinces has decreased by 10%, with the textile industry accounting for 8% and the salt industry for 2%; it is estimated that the textile industry will require an additional 2 million people in the next 1-3 years, and the salt industry will require 600,000 people in the next 1-3 years. The agricultural population in the four provinces will decrease to 21%; entering a crisis zone;]
[Industrial Warning: The textile industry in the four Jiangnan provinces currently has a capacity of 2 million bolts, will reach saturation in the next year, and will enter surplus within 3 years; the new salt industry has a current capacity of 100 million jin, with a potential capacity of 8 billion jin. The national demand is 5 billion jin, and full production is expected in about 10 years; the production of capital goods such as ironware and woodwork has already overdrawn its capacity; the tea and porcelain industries are subject to institutional and technical constraints;...]
[Assessment: Imbalance between primary and secondary industries, warning index 74%; imbalance within the secondary industry, warning index 95%;]
[Consequences: The probability of a grain crisis appearing in the next 1 year is 75%, and in the next 2 years is 88%...; the handicraft population will gradually become surplus in the next 1-3 years, with a probability of social crisis outbreak of 97%;]
[Recommendation: Start over.]
The system's recommendation was naturally nonsense, but the crises it revealed were very real.
Zhu Mo felt that it was basically consistent with his ten days of investigation. The biggest problem was "imbalance," which would lead to a series of consequences. And the most pressing issue, which the system had not mentioned, was the impact of the new workshops on the old ones, and the impact of the new models on the old ones.
He believed that the underlying reason behind this wave of Yangming official school fervor was the contradiction brought about by this transition from old to new.
For this reason,
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On the last day, he had Zhang Juzheng and Shen Shixing take him to see the old workshops.
The one Shen Shixing chose was on the outskirts of Hangzhou. It was already quite large, operating for fifteen or sixteen years with over three hundred looms. The owner was a jeweler from Jiujiang named Xu Yang. Knowing that Imperial Envoy Zhu Mo was coming, he was both pleased and frightened. He accompanied them throughout, not daring to say a word, and responded with meekness to every question, deferring to the manager for answers.
Zhu Mo observed that within the vast factory, there were surprisingly few people, and only about a dozen looms were in operation, with most of them idle. He thought to himself, "These old models are probably finished..."
At this point, the manager also explained, saying:
"Scholar Zhu, Lord Zhang, when the boss started, the weavers were tenant farmers. They supplied mulberry leaves and worked here. Nowadays, they've all returned to farm for themselves..."
Xu Yang, who had been following behind the group, suddenly changed his expression and quickly said, "No, no! Esteemed Scholar Zhu, Lord Zhang, that's not true! It's the busy farming season, so they've all gone back. It'll be fine in a while, hahaha..."
Zhu Mo guessed immediately: The old model was workshops + farmers, relying on people like He Maocai to suppress them. Tenant farmers, in order to survive, had to agree to everything. Their land was forcibly converted to mulberry cultivation, and they were hired. However, the accounts showed it was not cost-effective. Thus, when the new model emerged, they wanted to farm for themselves, and the situation here declined.
Zhang Juzheng, also well aware of the reasons, sighed, "Boss Xu, the affairs of the world are like a chess game, ever-changing. Old calendars will eventually become useless..."
"Yes, yes, yes..."
Xu Yang was already quite displeased but, fearing Zhang Juzheng, dared not speak.
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After leaving,
Zhu Mo asked Shen Shixing, "Rumor, how many workshops are like this?"
Shen Shixing replied, "Esteemed Scholar Zhu, we have inspected them all. Except for the three directly under the Directorate of Weaving, all the old workshops in Hangzhou have collapsed..."
Oh?
"Why haven't the Directorate of Weaving's collapsed?"
Shen Shixing said, "Most of the Directorate of Weaving's weavers are farmers from the Imperial Estates, and some have been weavers for generations, with official weaver registration..."
Zhang Juzheng also added, "The Grand Ancestor was wise! The Directorate of Weaving and the Imperial Estates are connected. Workshops like Boss Xu's and Boss Shen's are not connected, which is why the embankments were destroyed and fields flooded... Esteemed Scholar Zhu, this problem has also become extremely urgent..."
Mm-hmm,
Zhu Mo sighed, "Indeed. I rushed down this time precisely to solve these problems..."
...
Returning to the post station,
Zhu Mo took out the system again and examined it. By late night, he had finally figured out a general approach—
The industrialization of the Great Ming was proactive and ahead of its time, thus lacking experience to draw upon. It seemed he could only explore it himself, and the fundamental principle of exploration should be fairness.
Regarding farmers and land, the Grand Ancestor's institutional design left two major components. One was the Imperial Estates and the system of official bureaus. Here, there were all sorts of occupations, and the farmland belonged to the Imperial Estates. The farmers of the Imperial Estates, in addition to cultivating the imperial lands, also had their own plots, so their lives were slightly better than ordinary people.
On the other side were the common people. They had initially received their own plots based on population count. As long as they did not have special household registration, they could also engage in other trades. kuAiδugg
However, after the Hongzhi era, the land of the Imperial Estates suddenly increased dramatically. Not only the Emperor and the Crown Prince, but also the vassal kings began to engage in it. These were still considered minor. Even more prevalent were the households that donated land, which were large-scale donations where gentry families offered thousands of mu of land to avoid taxes. This was all "fake imperial land."
As Zhang Juzheng said, the Directorate of Weaving was not impacted by the new model because its weavers were already part of the Imperial Estates-official bureau system. They had no motivation, nor the courage, to start their own ventures. Moreover, the Directorate of Weaving belonged to the imperial household, never delayed wages, and paid significantly higher wages than private workshops, so this period remained stable.
The old private workshops followed a very classic industrialization model, which was the "enclosure" model. Simply put, it occupied land and required labor. This process was naturally bloody. Yan Shifan's destruction of embankments and flooding of fields was not the most extreme example.
Zhu Mo certainly would not choose the latter. Judging from the data provided by the system, the Great Ming had the potential to forge its own industrialization model. Because it held the right to trade discourse and had technological advantages, there was no need to resort to brutal methods; it could be conducted in a controlled manner.