Chapter 196 Overestimating Oneself

Su Yehao had only been a construction site supervisor in his previous life, so he didn't know enough about the stock market trends of this era.

He only knew that there had been an Internet bubble.

As for when it developed, how it happened, etc., it was all a blank.

Even if he found an expert from later generations, they wouldn't dare to pat their chest and pinpoint the Nasdaq's historical trend data to a specific day, let alone him, a mere ordinary person.

This led to Su Yehao being relatively accurate in grasping the general trend, but lacking in controlling specific details.

Other fund managers use investors' money to make money, and even if they lose, it's not a big problem. At worst, they can change their identity and start over. As long as they can fool people and have a platform to continue raising funds, they can make a comeback in a few years.

However, Su Yehao was playing with his own money, so the psychological pressure was completely different, which inevitably made him indecisive when investing, and he would also make many wrong decisions.

For example, Cisco, Qualcomm, and Yahoo stocks last year, looking at them in early February of 2000, were obviously sold a little early.

Last year, Cisco's full-year revenue was close to $20 billion. The newly released 1999 financial report in February was quite impressive, which led to another surge in its market value, already exceeding $500 billion.

And Yahoo's total market value has now increased to more than $100 billion.

If Su Yehao hadn't been thinking about securing profits and had held these financial assets until now, he could have earned an additional two to three billion dollars.

Sitting on the roof of the hotel chatting with Vice President Zheng Yongwen, many guests around were glancing at Su Yehao from time to time.

Office workers had already gone to work on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, and the occupancy rate today was less than one-third. The guests who could come to the hi Garden Hotel to spend money at this moment were generally quite wealthy. Perhaps because they often saw celebrities and wealthy businessmen, no one rashly came to disturb him.

Zheng Yongwen then asked curiously, "I'm a little confused. Why did you choose that time to short the Nasdaq index, and invest so much money?"

Su Yehao smiled awkwardly and sighed:

"Don't mention it, I regret it so much I want to bang my head against the wall. I saw on the news that the U.S. interest rate hike cycle was coming to an end, and the average price-to-earnings ratio of those tech stocks had already exceeded 140. I think you understand how exaggerated this number is better than I do."

"So, I thought I'd take a gamble. I originally thought that a 10x leverage, with a 10% float, was already relatively large, and the Nasdaq index had already risen a lot since the millennium, which made me think it would be relatively safe. I didn't expect it to rise sharply for several days in a row, going straight up. If I hadn't been thinking about getting my money back, I actually had a chance to run earlier."

"Now that I think about it carefully, it may be because I have too much money and didn't take this investment seriously. Otherwise, I should have been more careful..."

Looking up at Su Yehao, Zheng Yongwen almost choked, stimulated by his "blame me for having too much money."

It inexplicably felt like there was some truth to it.

It was probably like rich people taking a few million to the Casino, 1997 for a little fun, anyway, it doesn't affect their lives, and winning or losing doesn't matter.

Zheng Yongwen thought that indeed, money that comes too easily is easy to take for granted. He shook his head helplessly and said, "I can only blame you for your bad luck, young master. Actually, your idea wasn't wrong in my opinion, but you underestimated how strong capital's desire to survive is."

"Desire to survive?"

"Yes, no one wants a super bubble worth trillions of dollars to burst in their hands, and the best way to attract others to take over is to continue to炒 high the stock price and create the illusion that the stock market is still booming. Everyone is cautiously maintaining the status quo, but in reality, a soft landing is unlikely. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times in the past year or so, and there will be at most one or two more times. In fact, the bubble could burst at any time. You just weren't lucky enough."

After Zheng Yongwen finished the proposal work for the semiconductor industrial park last year, he went to India for further study again.

His head got hot and he drank a bowl of Ganges water... Later, his head really got hot.

He had a high fever of 40 degrees Celsius, and after going to the UK for an examination, he found parasite eggs in his head. He had a craniotomy to recover.

He had been busy recuperating for the past few days, and accidentally saw the news of Su Yehao losing money in the newspaper, so he began to pay attention to the recent trend of the Nasdaq.

As soon as he paid attention, he couldn't sit still, so he took the initiative to find Su Yehao today to discuss joint speculation.

After listening to his words.

Su Yehao sighed again and replied:

"I understand these principles too. There are more and more shorts like me, but they aren't as black-hearted as I am. They like to play hedging, while I only bet on one side, high risk and high return, and the losses are correspondingly greater. In fact, the money I lost this time was all the profit I made from being long a while ago. Do you have any research on timing?"

"No."

Shaking his head, Zheng Yongwen added:

"So I also plan to try hedging and observe the subsequent trends. Anyway, with the performance of these days, the Nasdaq market has completely gone crazy, throwing value investing and growth investing all behind. I think the next trend should be related to the Fed's movements. The funds that should have flowed back to the United States are already in the stock market, real estate market, and bond market. When the Fed starts to become weak, the market should collapse. There's already a sense of panic outside."

Su Yehao was also quite clear about these superficial principles.

His loss this time was mainly due to the fact that he had not expected the Nasdaq market to be so crazy this time, and the Federal Reserve probably also felt that the bubble was too big. The latest interest rate hike exceeded market expectations and pushed up stock prices again.

The loss was a loss, there was nothing to regret. Su Yehao ordered a mocha and said:

"When I discussed the lock-up period for the Yanwenzi Group's initial public offering with the investment bank, I got carried away and followed the trend, setting it for one year later, in order to reassure the shareholders. This also means that the Yanwenzi Group shares I hold can only be sold on the market after April. I wonder if I can find some fools recently to directly recoup some money through block trades and negotiated transfers."

Zheng Yongwen asked him, "What is the total market value of your Yanwenzi Group?"

"I'm not too sure, I haven't dared to look at it too much, lest I feel bad after it falls. It broke sixteen billion U.S. dollars last week, right? I haven't done the financial reports well, and all the losses were thrown into last year's financial report. The major shareholders personally suppressed the stock price. Who else is this kind except for kind people like me?"

"Young master, there's no benefit to you in doing this. As long as the stock price falls and the investment doesn't make money, the shareholders still won't appreciate it, but will instead find it annoying. You can only say these words to me, you must not spread them, lest it ruin your reputation."/

"Understood, I'm not stupid..."

Pulling the topic back to the proposal of cooperation again, Su Yehao agreed to invest three hundred million U.S. dollars in Zheng Yongwen, but the commission after making money must be set according to the profit scale.

Zheng Yongwen only wanted to hold a large amount of funds and have a good time. He himself had a relatively low pursuit of money, so he took the initiative to propose that he would only extract 5% of the profit if the profit exceeded one time.

From this point of view.

It seems that he is quite confident in the prospects. Normally, it is not easy to earn more than one time the profit.

Since he was so sincere, what else could Su Yehao say.

They analyzed and discussed the recent trends of Nasdaq for a while.

As for reducing the shares of Yanwenzi Group through commodities, it is not easy to find a fool to take over in the current situation. If the eating is too ugly, it is easy to cause resistance from other major shareholders.

Considering the prospects of Yanwenzi Group, it is better to continue to hold the shares in hand and wait patiently for three or five years, so Su Yehao just mentioned it casually, without much expectation...